▥   THE NEXT CONGRESS
NOVEMBER 3, 2026   /   DAILY SCENARIO EXPLORER

Balance of power2026

Four paths through the midterms.
Track what changes, one day at a time.

Loading saved forecast…Daily analysis · 7:00 a.m. Pacific

01The forecast, day by day

Probability of each outcome

Percentage points · daily snapshots

WHAT CHANGED

Today’s analysis

    Daily record & downloads
    One permanent snapshot per Pacific calendar day. Gaps mean no verified snapshot was recorded.
    DateD House / D SenateD House / R SenateR House / R SenateR House / D SenateStatus

    02Choose an outcome

    Joint control probabilities · DDHQ

    Odds describe chamber control. The seat counts and geographic paths below are illustrative examples, not forecasts of these exact results. How the maps are built ↗

    03Follow the seats

    Senate paths

    CTDEMDMANHNJRIVT

    House districts are aggregated by state. Map area does not represent seat count. Alaska and Hawaii are insets.

    ONE PATH TO THIS OUTCOME

    All 50 states
    StateBaseline DScenario D / RD change vs. baselineD change vs. yesterday

    04What it means for the administration

    Conditional analysis · 2027–28

    How to read this forecast

    Day-over-day comparisons use the previous Pacific calendar day from the same forecast model. Missing days are left blank. “Unchanged” means a fresh source check found the same values; a failed source check does not create a new snapshot. Published probabilities and analyst interpretations are identified separately. No retrospective history has been invented.

    05Sources & data